Casino Group Simulation

Pre-default Analysis - Financial Data 2022

12 months before safeguard procedure

Resilience Score

0.17

out of 1.0 (very low)

Default Probability

83%

within 18 months

Classification

RED ZONE

IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUIRED

Critical Indicators

6/11

in red zone

Financial Ratios 2022

Current Ratio
0.78
Critical: <1.0
CRITICAL
Quick Ratio
0.52
Critical: <0.7
CRITICAL
Gross Margin
23.5%
Low: <25%
LOW
Net Margin
-4.2%
Net loss
LOSS
Inventory Turnover
9.5
Good: >8.0
GOOD
Asset Turnover
0.91
Low: <1.2
LOW
Debt/Equity
6.2
Dangerous: >2.0
DANGEROUS
ST Debt/Equity
2.5
Dangerous: >1.0
DANGEROUS
Interest Coverage
1.2
Insufficient: <3.0
INSUFFICIENT
DSO (days)
25
Good: <30
GOOD

Early Detection

Our simulator would have identified this risk 18 months before the safeguard procedure.

1
January 2022
2022 data available
2
March 2022
Simulator alert
3
July 2023
Safeguard procedure

Early detection: 16 months ahead

Identified Recommendations

Improve immediate liquidity (High Priority)

Quick Ratio of 0.52 is critical. Urgently increase liquidity or reduce short-term debt to improve financial resilience.

Reduce structural debt (High Priority)

Debt/Equity ratio of 6.2 is dangerously high. An urgent deleveraging plan must be implemented.

Improve repayment capacity (High Priority)

Interest coverage at 1.2 is insufficient. Increase EBIT or reduce debt to secure repayments.

Reverse growth trend (High Priority)

Revenue is declining. An offensive commercial strategy must be developed to regain positive growth.

Optimize gross margin (Medium Priority)

Gross margin of 23.5% is low for the sector. Renegotiate with suppliers and adjust pricing policy.

Analysis Conclusion

The simulation confirms the critical situation of Casino Group in 2022 with a very low resilience score (0.17/1.0) and a very high default probability (83%). Six of the eleven financial indicators were in the red zone, signaling major structural problems. Our algorithm would have detected this risk as early as March 2022, 16 months before the July 2023 safeguard procedure.

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